Demographic Risk Factors
Over the past few decades, countries from every major political and religious background and in virtually every region have experienced momentous change in the size and structure of their populations. Yet the global demographic transition — the transformation of populations from short lives and large families to longer lives and small families — remains woefully incomplete.
Roughly one third of all countries, including many in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South and Central Asia, are still in the early stages of the transition, with fertility rates above four children per woman.
By examining the connections between population and security, one fully appreciates how demographic factors and statistics are linked to the emergence of civil conflicts in poorer countries.
High rates of infant mortality - the proportion of newborns dying before their first birthday - are associated with civil unrest and cataclysm in third world countries.
The connection points out to such demographic measures as the large proportions of young and older people entering and leaving into workforce. This is very important in the analysis of why there is an intense rise of armed conflict and rebellion.
The study links this to the economic, political, environmental constraints these forces bring into existence. This demographic transition is relevant to the lack of security, stability and the unrest.
The four demographic risk factors that can be part of the cause recurrent unrest and conflict and can inhibit social and economic progress are as follow:
· The Clash of the Ages.
· The Emerging Threat of HIV/AIDS.
· Rapid Urban Growth.
· Competing for Water and Cropland.
According to the United Nations, more than 100 countries worldwide had large “youth bulges” in 2000—a situation where people aged 15 to 29 account for more than 40 percent of all adults.
It is in developing countries where this increase of youth is taking place. Large proportions of these youth have no means of earning their livelihood. Most are unemployed and thus are prone to join the rebel forces and take part in civil conflicts. “Over the past decade, youth unemployment rates have risen to more than double the overall global unemployment rate. In the absence of a secure livelihood, discontented youth may resort to violence or turn to insurgent organizations as a source of social mobility and self-esteem.”
This is so symptomatic when you look the political turmoil and unrest in many countries in Africa. Many of its child population have known nothing else other than being a child soldier. It is the warlords who exploit these child soldiers for their political interests.
A way to deal with youth demographic problem is for governments and international agencies to implement rehabilitation programs such creating vocational and entrepreneurial training programs. In Somalia, where the young people have joined in large proportion to the rebel groups, civil society organizations are striving hard to attract these youth by providing them an educational alternative to being a gun-bearer for a ruthless warmonger.
High fertility is also a factor associated with this observable cause. One way to reverse this is to empower women organizations. These organizations are the once who could educate young girls.
The HIV/AIDS pandemic is also another demographic risk that poses a threat to the world. “Since 1981, more than 20 million people have died from HIV-related infections, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa. With nearly 90 percent of these fatalities occurring among people of working age…”
What are some the recommendations of how to tackle this AIDS pandemic issue?
Many have suggested unless an AIDS vaccines is find, it is going to be difficult to prevail over its spread and tribulations. Well, that maybe true, but in the meantime prevention and educational awareness programs are some of the effective ways to at least reduce its disrupting slaughter of human beings.
Rapid urban growth is the third demographic factor that is mentioned here in this chapter. As evidence, the astronomical population increase in developing countries is presented.
“Since 1950, the world’s urban population has more than quadrupled, from 733 million to just over 3 billion, and it is now growing faster than world population as a whole.”
This rapid growth of population can be a recipe for unpredictable ethnic unrest. “Crowded cities can harbor intense economic and political competition among diverse groups and become a locus for ethnic and religious conflict.”
Evidently, job creation and improving relations and easing the tension between ethnic groups are some of the ways to curb this issue.
Competing for Water and Cropland is the last and fourth demographic risk factor that is linked to security and population.
Many regions of the world are experiencing rapid declines in both the quality and the availability of critical natural resources. More than 30 countries—most of them in Africa and the Middle East—have now fallen below even the most conservative benchmarks for scarcity of either cropland or renewable fresh water.
This scarcity of natural resources could lead to wars. In some parts of the world, it could be said that it is already true. In Somalia, for instance, scarcity of water and grass had a significant role in the ongoing political and social unrest. Clans are competing over the use and exploitation of the scarce resources.
Who has the right to such scarce resources is a major headache in Somalia for there is a lot of migration and mobility of nomads. To make matters worse, there is no government to control and lay down measures to alleviate land disputes at all.
Some recommended that the solution of this issue lies within the equitable and fair management of who has an access to these scarce resources.
Some Statistics on Somalia.
Population:
8,591,629
note: this estimate was derived from an official census taken in 1975 by the Somali Government; population counting in Somalia is complicated by the large number of nomads and by refugee movements in response to famine and clan warfare (July 2005 est.)
Age structure:
0-14 years: 44.5% (male 1,918,209/female 1,905,974)
15-64 years: 52.9% (male 2,278,406/female 2,263,602)
65 years and over: 2.6% (male 96,256/female 129,182) (2005 est.)
Median age:
total: 17.59 years
male: 17.53 years
female: 17.65 years (2005 est.)
Population growth rate:
3.38% (2005 est.)
Birth rate:
45.62 births/1,000 population (2005 est.)
Death rate:
16.97 deaths/1,000 population (2005 est.)
Net migration rate:
5.19 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2005 est.)
Sex ratio:
at birth: 1.03 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.01 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 1.01 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.74 male(s)/female
total population: 1 male(s)/female (2005 est.)
Infant mortality rate:
total: 116.7 deaths/1,000 live births
male: 126.06 deaths/1,000 live births
female: 107.06 deaths/1,000 live births (2005 est.)
Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 48.09 years
male: 46.36 years
female: 49.87 years (2005 est.)
Total fertility rate:
6.84 children born/woman (2005 est.)
HIV/AIDS - adult prevalence rate:
1% (2001 est.)
HIV/AIDS - people living with HIV/AIDS:
43,000 (2001 est.)
HIV/AIDS - deaths:
NA
Roughly one third of all countries, including many in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South and Central Asia, are still in the early stages of the transition, with fertility rates above four children per woman.
By examining the connections between population and security, one fully appreciates how demographic factors and statistics are linked to the emergence of civil conflicts in poorer countries.
High rates of infant mortality - the proportion of newborns dying before their first birthday - are associated with civil unrest and cataclysm in third world countries.
The connection points out to such demographic measures as the large proportions of young and older people entering and leaving into workforce. This is very important in the analysis of why there is an intense rise of armed conflict and rebellion.
The study links this to the economic, political, environmental constraints these forces bring into existence. This demographic transition is relevant to the lack of security, stability and the unrest.
The four demographic risk factors that can be part of the cause recurrent unrest and conflict and can inhibit social and economic progress are as follow:
· The Clash of the Ages.
· The Emerging Threat of HIV/AIDS.
· Rapid Urban Growth.
· Competing for Water and Cropland.
According to the United Nations, more than 100 countries worldwide had large “youth bulges” in 2000—a situation where people aged 15 to 29 account for more than 40 percent of all adults.
It is in developing countries where this increase of youth is taking place. Large proportions of these youth have no means of earning their livelihood. Most are unemployed and thus are prone to join the rebel forces and take part in civil conflicts. “Over the past decade, youth unemployment rates have risen to more than double the overall global unemployment rate. In the absence of a secure livelihood, discontented youth may resort to violence or turn to insurgent organizations as a source of social mobility and self-esteem.”
This is so symptomatic when you look the political turmoil and unrest in many countries in Africa. Many of its child population have known nothing else other than being a child soldier. It is the warlords who exploit these child soldiers for their political interests.
A way to deal with youth demographic problem is for governments and international agencies to implement rehabilitation programs such creating vocational and entrepreneurial training programs. In Somalia, where the young people have joined in large proportion to the rebel groups, civil society organizations are striving hard to attract these youth by providing them an educational alternative to being a gun-bearer for a ruthless warmonger.
High fertility is also a factor associated with this observable cause. One way to reverse this is to empower women organizations. These organizations are the once who could educate young girls.
The HIV/AIDS pandemic is also another demographic risk that poses a threat to the world. “Since 1981, more than 20 million people have died from HIV-related infections, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa. With nearly 90 percent of these fatalities occurring among people of working age…”
What are some the recommendations of how to tackle this AIDS pandemic issue?
Many have suggested unless an AIDS vaccines is find, it is going to be difficult to prevail over its spread and tribulations. Well, that maybe true, but in the meantime prevention and educational awareness programs are some of the effective ways to at least reduce its disrupting slaughter of human beings.
Rapid urban growth is the third demographic factor that is mentioned here in this chapter. As evidence, the astronomical population increase in developing countries is presented.
“Since 1950, the world’s urban population has more than quadrupled, from 733 million to just over 3 billion, and it is now growing faster than world population as a whole.”
This rapid growth of population can be a recipe for unpredictable ethnic unrest. “Crowded cities can harbor intense economic and political competition among diverse groups and become a locus for ethnic and religious conflict.”
Evidently, job creation and improving relations and easing the tension between ethnic groups are some of the ways to curb this issue.
Competing for Water and Cropland is the last and fourth demographic risk factor that is linked to security and population.
Many regions of the world are experiencing rapid declines in both the quality and the availability of critical natural resources. More than 30 countries—most of them in Africa and the Middle East—have now fallen below even the most conservative benchmarks for scarcity of either cropland or renewable fresh water.
This scarcity of natural resources could lead to wars. In some parts of the world, it could be said that it is already true. In Somalia, for instance, scarcity of water and grass had a significant role in the ongoing political and social unrest. Clans are competing over the use and exploitation of the scarce resources.
Who has the right to such scarce resources is a major headache in Somalia for there is a lot of migration and mobility of nomads. To make matters worse, there is no government to control and lay down measures to alleviate land disputes at all.
Some recommended that the solution of this issue lies within the equitable and fair management of who has an access to these scarce resources.
Some Statistics on Somalia.
Population:
8,591,629
note: this estimate was derived from an official census taken in 1975 by the Somali Government; population counting in Somalia is complicated by the large number of nomads and by refugee movements in response to famine and clan warfare (July 2005 est.)
Age structure:
0-14 years: 44.5% (male 1,918,209/female 1,905,974)
15-64 years: 52.9% (male 2,278,406/female 2,263,602)
65 years and over: 2.6% (male 96,256/female 129,182) (2005 est.)
Median age:
total: 17.59 years
male: 17.53 years
female: 17.65 years (2005 est.)
Population growth rate:
3.38% (2005 est.)
Birth rate:
45.62 births/1,000 population (2005 est.)
Death rate:
16.97 deaths/1,000 population (2005 est.)
Net migration rate:
5.19 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2005 est.)
Sex ratio:
at birth: 1.03 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.01 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 1.01 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.74 male(s)/female
total population: 1 male(s)/female (2005 est.)
Infant mortality rate:
total: 116.7 deaths/1,000 live births
male: 126.06 deaths/1,000 live births
female: 107.06 deaths/1,000 live births (2005 est.)
Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 48.09 years
male: 46.36 years
female: 49.87 years (2005 est.)
Total fertility rate:
6.84 children born/woman (2005 est.)
HIV/AIDS - adult prevalence rate:
1% (2001 est.)
HIV/AIDS - people living with HIV/AIDS:
43,000 (2001 est.)
HIV/AIDS - deaths:
NA
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